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猪仔价格降低有利于生猪市场发展

放大字体  缩小字体 发布日期:2015-06-09  来源:搜猪网  浏览次数:810407
内容摘要:  猪价行情:本周全国出栏肉猪平均价格(瘦肉型、良杂、土杂猪的均价)从上周的13.88元/公斤涨至14.03元/公斤,同比上涨11.67%。
   猪价行情:本周全国出栏肉猪平均价格(瘦肉型、良杂、土杂猪的均价)从上周的13.88元/公斤涨至14.03元/公斤,同比上涨11.67%。瘦肉型猪从14.31元/公斤涨至14.43元/公斤,良杂猪从13.82元/公斤涨至13.98元/公斤,土杂猪从13.5元/公斤涨至13.68元/公斤。全国仔猪价格均价(三元和良杂仔猪均价)从上周的27.39元/公斤至27.03元/公斤,较去年同期的23.56元/公斤上涨14.73%,三元仔猪价格从30.1元/公斤降至29.86元/公斤,良杂仔猪价格从上周的24.68元/公斤降至24.2元/公斤,同比分别上涨14.98%和14.42%。后备二元母猪价格至1592元/头,同比上涨8.8%。

农民信息网 www.fxnonstop.com   观点1:本周7天猪价走势:震荡上涨至14.5元/公斤附近

  本周7天全国生猪市场继续保持震荡上涨态势。虽然上周末出现了短暂下跌但正如前期所分析,仍无法改变震荡上涨的大趋势。上周末5月31日全国瘦肉型猪出栏均价下跌至14.25元/公斤,进入本周后便持续上涨,6月3日涨至14.45元/公斤,4日又回落至14.39元/公斤,5日涨至14.51元/公斤,6日降至14.43元/公斤,周末6月7日再次涨至14.51元/公斤。2014年6月7日左右猪价至13元/公斤左右,因此当前猪价同比涨幅保持在10%以上。

新玩家汇娱乐  观点2:仔猪价格回落有利于生猪市场向良性转变

  自今年3月18日生猪市场转入周期性上涨通道后,瘦肉型猪出栏价格已从11.6元/公斤左右涨至目前的14.5元/公斤左右,累计上涨近3元/公斤,同比上涨一成左右。与此同时,三大饲料原料价格的下跌共同推动了总成本的下降。其中养殖户拿到的玉米价格豆粕价格分别同比下降2.45%和21.76%,共同带动了育肥猪配合料同比下降了近5%。猪价涨、料价降这一双重利好非常有利于养猪业的恢复。

  但由于之前这一双重利好极大的推动了仔猪补栏和母猪补栏的积极性,使得仔猪价格催生了一定的泡沫。猪价刚涨过成本线,而仔猪价格远高于成本线,使得生猪市场短暂处于补栏风险较大的非良性时期。而本周仔猪的补栏和价格均有所回落,渐趋理性,若此势头能够持续,生猪市场便可逐渐向良性发展转变。

  众所周知,我国养猪业主要由自繁自养、专业母猪养殖、专业育肥猪养殖三大结构模式组成,要想整体良性发展,三者利益分配必须合理。例如:仔猪价格若过高,必将导致专业育肥猪养殖的成本过高,而减少补栏,同时,专业母猪养殖的效益甚至高于自繁自养。近一个月来,30斤左右的三元仔猪价格突破500元/头,出售一头仔猪的头均利润200元以上,而瘦肉型的出栏价格才刚刚突破7元/斤,自繁自养出栏瘦肉型猪头均盈利仅100元左右。

新玩家汇娱乐  过高的仔猪价格不仅蚕食了专业育肥猪养殖的大部分利润,使得补栏仔猪进行育肥的市场风险骤增,同时还导致母猪补栏积极性过高,母猪存栏的拐点提前到来,从而从源头上缩减周期性上涨期所持续的时间,对整个生猪市场的远期发展不利。因此,仔猪价格出现回落非常有利于生猪市场在原本“猪价涨、料价降”双重利好的推动下逐渐向良性发展转变。

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